GIOVANNI  SALVINI

Lo sviluppo economico cinese: vincoli economici e potere politico

 alla vigilia del «grande balzo in avanti»

N. 150

Summary — In the article the reasons are analysed that have spurred on, in 1957, the political management of the Popular Republic of China to the strategy of the Great Leap Forward.

Soon after the I Five Year’s Plan the balanced growth between industry and agriculture called for a thorough change of policy if the bottlenecks which hampered the general growth had to be removed.

The most serious problem - low productivity in agriculture - could have been solved only through the substantial shift of investments from the industrial to the agricultural sector. The lack of an industrial base able to supply an adequate amount of modern inputs to agriculture made useless this option in the short-medium term.

Only the Great Leap Forward offered the hope of a high growth rate even though a remarkable degree of risk was implicit both in the theoretical formulation (balanced and fast growth) and in the determination to consolidate the power in the rural world.

The Great Leap Forward was a complete economic and social failure. Only twenty years later (1978-1980) with the coming back of the peasant family at the centre of rural life the economic growth acquired a more balanced and accelerated character.