MARISA BOTTIROLI CIVARDI

Modelli  per l'analisi di dati categoriali nello studio ecologico del comportamento elettorale.

Una applicazione alla provincia di Brescia

N. 174

Summary — In this paper the ecological approach to the results of the latest Italian electoral consultations (March 1994) is applied: aggregate information rather than data coming from an individual survey is therefore used. The aim is to verify, although using tools different from the traditional multiple regression analysis, the existence of a relation between some socio-demographic features and the electoral behaviour. The application, using municipal data, concerns the population living in Brescia's province.

The construction of categorial variables (achieved by the application of cluster analysis methods), in short terms, for each town both the "political distinguishing marks" and the socio-professional features, allowed this analysis to fit into the categorial variable methods. This application, besides supplying an example of the log-linear and logistic model use, can be considered an innovatory experiment facing the used tools in wider electoral behaviour ecological analysis. The achieved results, although quite conditioned by the necessity of adopting a very reduced number of explanatory variables, because of the limited size (only 205 units), have highlighted some peculiar aspects of the electoral behaviour in the investigated area.