SIMONE GERZELI

La criminalità minorile in Italia: analisi delle possibili determinanti

N. 188

Summary — Objectives: to identify a series of indicators of discontent among minors that takes into account the socioeconomic situation of the families in which they live and of their conditions at work and school, and to ascertain whether these factors can explain the different levels of youth crime in Italy.

Materials and methods: the indicator used for degrees of criminality was that of the relation between the set of charges against minors that have led to criminal proceedings on the part of the judicial authorities, and the set of minors that live with their families; the statistical unit providing the object of the analysis was that of the province (provincia). The effect of the factors of discontent on the levels of youth criminality was estimated using a multiple linear regression model.

Results: fifteen indicators of discontent were constructed, relative to four themes: the territorial characteristics of the province, the levels of education and working opportunities of minors, and finally, discontent due to the lack of family unity and unemployment of parents. The centre of Italy is the geographical area with the highest number of provinces with high levels of criminality, followed by the south and the north. The indicators of family discontent suggest a more difficult situation for minors over 13 years of age.

The multiple regression analysis identified 4 factors with a statistically significant correlation with the criminality indicator: high levels of criminality occur in provinces with higher percentages of minors with unemployed parents, of minors with at least one of the factors of family discontent, of minors without parents and, surprisingly, of minors that stay on at school.