GIUSEPPE IANNINI

 Cina. Un modello di via finanziaria allo sviluppo

213

Settembre-Dicembre 2006

Anno LXXI    n. 3

Summary -This contribution deals with some relevant issues concerning the relations among banking and economic development in China . With respect to the prevailing findings of literature on these topics China offers a unique “counterexample” since, although the common quantitative indicators of “financial deepening” are aligned with those of more advanced financial countries, the qualitative ones move away considerably from them.  Consequently China contradicts the neoclassical view by which both “financial repression” and state ownership of banks, in a context of weak rule of law, hamper economic development.  This theoretical “enigma” can be unfolded by resorting to non conventional analysis of the role of banking in Chinese economy.  Non conventional view emphasizes credit policy as a tool to reconcile the conflicting goals of long run economic development and macroeconomic stability.  In fact through a tight control of the state owned banks(the “big four”) the Chinese policy makers succeeded in funding the obsolete capital-intensive state-owned firms and prevented  the collapse of a considerable share of Chinese industry from reversing the high rate of development.   Nevertheless in the late nineties the burden of “non performing loans” began to emerge as a worrying problem for Chinese economic policy, the solution of which was immediately perceived as serious financial constraint on economic development.   In contrast with prevailing conventional wisdom the opinion of some analysts who argue that the overall economic resources of China are able to adjust financial imbalance and to reduce the menace to its macroeconomic stability and  continuity of its economic development reveals a best understanding of potentiality of this country to run a track leading to status of prominent economic power