Abstract
Autore:
Badini Antonio
Titolo:
"Da Yalta a Helsinki : per un Nuovo Ordine del Grande Medio Oriente"
The Greater Middle East
today resembles Maelstrom and Western
leaders stand accused of not having a comprehensive
and sustainable strategy in the
region. The roots of the Arab malaise run
deep and require forward-looking solutions.
The military interventions in Iraq and Libya
were squandered by the failure to help rebels
create a stable government. Civil wars are
devouring Syria, Libya, Iraq and Yemen: the
resulting political and social chaos leads to
humanitarian disaster and millions of people
leave their countries for an uncertain future.
The Islamic State, also known as ISIS and
DAESH, initially solely a terrorist organization,
went to seize land to govern, thereby
taking advantage of the void of leadership
and stability. ISIS has transformed itself into a
functioning state with decent governance for
those who live under its jurisdiction. Probably
due to the influx of Saddam – era Baathists,
ISIS knows how to play the game of
tribal alliances; it brought an order through
effective and brutal methods and developed
an economy based on a network of the smuggling
of oil. The current alignment being
shaped against the Islamic State looks still
temporary and ISIS lacking cohesion. Unlike
France, that has identified ISIS as its greatest
enemy, the other main actors engaged in the
fighting consider other enemies more important.
To be sure, President Bashar’s main
adversary is the Syrian opposition, which
seems more willing to compromise, while
the main enemy of Turkey is Kurdish separatism:
the Kurds, be they Syrian or Iraqi,
focus on defending their newly-established
borders as opposed to seeking to destroy ISIS.
After the downing of a Russian jet by Turkish
F-16, tensions have heightened within the
coalition: Turkey has become Russia’s main
enemy. Iraq’s government has denounced
Turkey for sending ground troops into areas
near Mosul. The region’s future prospects
look bleak. The main members of the coalition
are not prepared to deploy ground forces
and experience has shown that air raids
are not decisive. The region’s stability has
therefore to depend to a large degree on the
fighting ability of Arab armies, but are they
up to the job? Judging by their past performance
there is little reason for optimism.
The Iraqi army’s defeat to smaller forces of
ISIS in Mosul and Ramadi is evidence of that.
Put to the test at home, the Armies in Yemen
and Libya have simply splintered. Efforts to
build up the Free Syrian Army (FSA) have
been feeble and its performance is yet quite
modest. Under these circumstances, Putin’s
quest for a bigger role for his country should
be welcomed as long as it substantially contributes
to winning the fight against ISIS.The
civil war in Syria has involved a number
of outside actors; it has placed Russia and
Iran, tacitly backed by China, on the side of
Bashar al-Assad; on the other side stands the
West along with Sunni powers such as Turkey
and Saudi Arabia. A round of peace talks
in Vienna produced a vague road map for a
ceasefire, a period of transition and elections
but left unresolved the question of Assad’s
future. A difficult process of distinguishing
between terrorists to select those that can
join the transitional government has been
assigned to Jordan. The central role for convening
the Vienna talks has been carried out
by US President Obama, Russian President
Putin and British Prime Minister Cameron,
prompting some commentators to draw
parallels to the anti-Nazi alliance that in
1943 brought together Roosevelt, Churchill
and Stalin at the Yalta conference.That the
Vienna process now includes Iran is reason
for some optimism, as Tehran and Riyadh
will be the key actors to define a sustainable
“new order” of the region. The situation on
the ground calls for a substantive revision
of the borders as defined by the so-called
“Sykes-Picot” accords. However, in order for
the region to become more stable, it would
be necessary to promote a Helsinki-like
comprehensive agreement on security and
cooperation, endorsed by the United States,
Russia and the EU.
